The Radar

Three boards from one engine. Signals validated on eleven seasons of baseball’s public play-by-play with a pre-registered out-of-sample holdout; boards refresh nightly from that day’s games. Boards are candidates, not calls — calls get filed to the Ledger with terms.

Season 2026 · data through 2026-07-13 · what these numbers mean →

The Drift

July 11, 2026 → July 12, 2026 · 3 snapshots

Rank movement since the last board snapshot. Arrows track board position — on the Fade board, climbing is not a compliment.

MLB Breakout Board▲4 Drake Baldwin (16→12) · ▲3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (20→17) · ▲2 Aaron Judge (8→6) · ▼2 Yordan Alvarez (5→7) · ▲2 Edouard Julien (10→8) · ▼2 Mike Trout (7→9) · ▼2 Brandon Nimmo (9→11) · ▼2 Cam Smith (14→16) · ▲1 James Wood (6→5) · ▲1 Lawrence Butler (11→10) · ▼1 Brent Rooker (12→13) · ▼1 Bobby Witt Jr. (13→14) · ▼1 Patrick Bailey (17→18) · NEW Pete Alonso (#19) · NEW Carlos Narváez (#20) · off the board: Miguel Vargas (was 18), Jarren Duran (was 19)

MLB Fade Board▼3 Wyatt Langford (6→9) · ▼3 Jonny DeLuca (10→13) · ▼2 Chandler Simpson (12→14) · ▼1 Zack Gelof (4→5) · ▼1 Jake McCarthy (5→6) · ▼1 Jake Mangum (9→10) · ▲1 Ernie Clement (13→12) · ▼1 José Fermín (14→15) · NEW Nicky Lopez (#4) · off the board: Otto Lopez (was 15)

AAA Pre-Consensus (arm)▲1 Emiliano Teodo (13→12) · ▼1 Tanner McDougal (12→13)

Breakout Board — MLB

BREAKOUT

Contact quality outrunning results. In the holdout test, the top quintile of this signal outgained the bottom by +1.15 annualized WAR.

#	Player	Team	Age	EV95	Luck gap	Overlay	BIP
1	Edmundo Sosa	PHI	30	107.6	-0.105	0.989	116
2	Will Smith	LAD	31	106.4	-0.102	0.903	142
3	Corey Seager	TEX	32	107.9	-0.092	0.897	130
4	Austin Wells	NYY	27	106.3	-0.101	0.887	133
5▲1	James Wood	WSH	23	112.1	-0.059	0.840	238
6▲2	Aaron Judge	NYY	34	110.9	-0.067	0.840	141
7▼2	Yordan Alvarez	HOU	29	112.2	-0.058	0.832	275
8▲2	Edouard Julien	COL	27	105.5	-0.098	0.822	147
9▼2	Mike Trout	LAA	34	109.9	-0.069	0.812	192
10▲1	Lawrence Butler	ATH	26	109.3	-0.070	0.787	164
11▼2	Brandon Nimmo	TEX	33	107.0	-0.082	0.769	266
12▲4	Drake Baldwin	ATL	25	108.3	-0.072	0.750	209
13▼1	Brent Rooker	ATH	31	108.7	-0.069	0.744	116
14▼1	Bobby Witt Jr.	KC	26	111.0	-0.053	0.732	286
15	Adolis García	PHI	33	108.1	-0.069	0.715	150
16▼2	Cam Smith	HOU	23	108.8	-0.063	0.704	235
17▲3	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	TOR	27	110.8	-0.047	0.677	288
18▼1	Patrick Bailey	CLE	27	105.2	-0.079	0.658	130
19NEW	Pete Alonso	BAL	31	109.1	-0.055	0.654	258
20NEW	Carlos Narváez	BOS	27	106.3	-0.072	0.651	104

EV95 — 95th-percentile exit velocity (mph) — top-of-range contact quality · Luck gap — Results on contact minus what contact quality supports, park-adjusted · Overlay — Composite breakout signal — higher is more breakout-shaped · BIP — Balls in play — sample size

Fade Board — MLB

FADE

Results outrunning contact quality. Out of sample, this gap predicted −0.62 WAR per SD (p<0.0001); the top quintile declined −0.68 annualized WAR vs the field.

#	Player	Team	Age	EV95	Luck gap	Overlay	BIP
1	Mickey Moniak	COL	28	106.6	+0.093	-0.667	153
2	Tristan Peters	CWS	26	103.7	+0.086	-0.761	202
3	Blake Dunn	CIN	27	106.1	+0.079	-0.582	104
4NEW	Nicky Lopez	TEX	31	99.5	+0.077	-0.896	101
5▼1	Zack Gelof	ATH	26	104.7	+0.073	-0.608	165
6▼1	Jake McCarthy	COL	28	103.8	+0.073	-0.650	230
7	Eugenio Suárez	CIN	34	107.2	+0.063	-0.402	140
8	Ceddanne Rafaela	BOS	25	102.9	+0.059	-0.584	268
9▼3	Wyatt Langford	TEX	24	107.0	+0.058	-0.370	136
10▼1	Jake Mangum	PIT	30	101.8	+0.057	-0.620	189
11	José Caballero	NYY	29	103.2	+0.056	-0.545	205
12▲1	Ernie Clement	TOR	30	100.1	+0.056	-0.698	323
13▼3	Jonny DeLuca	TB	28	106.7	+0.055	-0.359	128
14▼2	Chandler Simpson	TB	25	98.1	+0.051	-0.750	298
15▼1	José Fermín	STL	27	99.9	+0.048	-0.641	134

Pre-Consensus Board — AAA Hitters

PRE-CONSENSUS

MLB-caliber contact at Triple-A, before the debut. EV95 is the most stable metric in our engine (year-over-year r=0.88). Honest boundary: signals are holdout-validated at MLB; the AAA application is the frontier.

#	Player	Org	Age	EV95	xVal (MLB)	AAA BIP	Debut
1	Spencer Jones	NYY	25	112.7	0.606	113	2026-05-08
2	Joshua Báez	STL	23	110.7	0.481	214	—
3	Esmerlyn Valdez	PIT	22	110.6	0.482	139	2026-05-22
4	Henry Bolte	ATH	22	110.6	0.418	117	2026-05-13
5	Kemp Alderman	MIA	23	110.2	0.530	138	—
6	Felix Reyes	PHI	25	109.7	0.427	200	2026-04-18
7	Deyvison De Los Santos	MIA	23	109.6	0.363	220	2026-03-29
8	Ryan Clifford	NYM	22	109.5	0.440	181	—
9	Abimelec Ortiz	WSH	24	109.1	0.427	201	—
10	Héctor Rodríguez	CIN	22	109.1	0.409	266	—
11	Walker Jenkins	MIN	21	109.0	0.372	113	—
12	Charlie Condon	COL	23	108.6	0.429	212	—
13	Blaze Jordan	STL	23	108.6	0.390	199	2026-06-12
14	Willy Vasquez	BAL	24	108.5	0.393	80	—
15	Yohandy Morales	WSH	24	108.5	0.470	227	—
16	Mikey Romero	BOS	22	108.4	0.363	218	—
17	Junior Perez	CWS	25	108.3	0.391	133	2026-06-18
18	Jonathon Long	CHC	24	108.2	0.369	261	—
19	Victor Bericoto	SF	24	108.0	0.435	134	2026-05-22
20	Pedro Ramírez	CHC	22	107.9	0.374	136	2026-05-23

EV95 — 95th-percentile exit velocity (mph) — top-of-range contact quality · xVal (MLB) — AAA contact graded on the MLB value grid · AAA BIP — Balls in play at AAA — sample size

Pre-Consensus Board — AAA Arms

PRE-CONSENSUS

MLB-calibrated stuff grades at Triple-A. Stuff-only caveat applies: stuff is not command, and our pitcher signals are not yet holdout-validated — these rows are watchlist, not calls.

#	Pitcher	Org	Age	Stuff	Pitches	Debut
1	Marques Johnson	SF	26	1.18	577	—
2	Josh Ekness	MIA	24	1.00	285	2026-05-03
3	Hunter Parks	CIN	25	0.92	309	—
4	Daniel Espino	CLE	25	0.87	413	2026-06-17
5	Brody Hopkins	TB	24	0.81	1330	—
6	Gavin Collyer	TEX	25	0.80	294	2026-04-15
7	Marco Raya	MIN	23	0.78	578	2026-06-27
8	Brandan Bidois	PIT	25	0.74	290	2026-05-13
9	Ryan Lambert	NYM	23	0.71	475	—
10	Alimber Santa	HOU	23	0.67	407	2026-05-25
11	Ben Peoples	TEX	25	0.65	602	2026-07-04
12▲1	Emiliano Teodo	TEX	25	0.65	763	—
13▼1	Tanner McDougal	CWS	23	0.64	448	—
14	Derek Diamond	PIT	25	0.63	230	—
15	Dylan Ross	NYM	25	0.62	464	—

Stuff — Pitch-quality grade from physical pitch characteristics · Pitches — Tracked pitches — sample size